Abstract
Thai merchandise exports decreased by 4.5% YoY in January, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline. Despite this, exports declined at a slower pace than December, with a small growth in mineral and fuel products. All major product exports reduced at a slower rate, with agricultural products improving to -2.2% YoY from -11.5% YoY in December. Excluding gold, Thai exports during the month fell by -4.4% YoY compared to -13.9% YoY in December. Imports returned to expansion, increasing by 5.5% YoY in January, with imports of nearly all major merchandise expanding, except for capital goods and raw materials and intermediate raw materials. Thailand’s customs basis trade balance registered at a deficit of $4,649.6m, marking 10 consecutive months of deficit.
Thai merchandise exports weakened in January, marking a fourth consecutive month decline.
The value of Thai exports in January 2023 was at USD 20,249.5 million, falling by -4.5%YOY. Despite declining for 4 consecutive months, exports in January decline at a slower pace from -14.6%YOY in December, in part because of the low base. In terms of the seasonally adjusted month-on-month growth, exports in January shrank by -3.0%MOM_sa. Nevertheless, excluding gold (a product that does not reflect actual international trade conditions), Thai exports during the month dropped by -4.4%YOY compared to -13.9%YOY in December.
Exports of all major products dropped by a slower rate. While exports of mineral and fuel products expanded for the first time in 6 months.
Exports of major products weakened by a slower rate in January, in which (1) Exports of agricultural products improved to -2.2%YOY from -11.5% in December. The key products including rubber, tapioca products, and prepared poultry continued to shrink. On the other hand, exports of rice soared by 72.3%, backed by the low base and India’s rice export curbs that increased the price of rice on the global market as well as heightened the demand for Thai rice. Furthermore, exports of chilled or frozen poultry cuts continued to expand for the eighth consecutive month. (2) Exports of agro-industrial products stalled to -3.3% after dropping by -10.7% in December. Nevertheless, the key products such as prepared or preserved fruits, prepared or preserved seafood, and sugar continued to shrink, while exports of animal or vegetable fats and oils grew drastically by 124%. (3) Exports of manufacturing products fell by a slower rate to -5.4%, from -15.7% in December. The key products that boosted growth were plastic beads, chemical products, and rubber products. Meanwhile, exports of motor cars, parts and accessories continued to improve as the gradually recovering chip supply heightened the production of cars for exports; and (4) Exports of mining and fuel products expanded 6.8% after dropping by -4.8% in the prior month supported by refined fuels exports that expanded for the first time in 6 months.
Exports to nearly all key markets fell by a slower rate. Meanwhile, exports to the Middle East continued to improve, and exports to ASEAN5 reverted to an expansion.
In the big picture, exports to nearly all key markets fell by a slower rate in January, with some markets reverting to an expansion. Such conditions reflected brighter global demand outlooks amidst prolonged weakening sentiment, in which (1) Exports to China fell by -11.4%, improving from -20.8% in the previous month. (2) Exports to the US dropped by -4.7% compared to -3.9% in the prior month. Such a condition was in line with worsening US economic signals this year. (3) Exports to EU28 reverted to a 2.7% growth after falling by -0.9% in the previous month as risks of entering an economic recession waned; and (4) Exports to CLMV continued to drop for the 3rd consecutive month at -11.1% after expanding for as long as 14 consecutive months. Such a growth slightly improved from -11.8% in the previous month. Meanwhile, exports to ASEAN5 returned to a 2.3% growth after tumbling for 3 consecutive months. Moreover, as the market with the highest growth in January, exports to the Middle East accelerated to 23.6% from 4.7% in December.
Thai trade deficit continued to widen for the tenth consecutive month, while imports returned to an expansion.
The value of imports in January stood at USD 24,899.1 million, returning to an expansion of 5.5% after shrinking for the first time in Q4/2022. Imports of nearly all major merchandise expaned, except imports of capital goods and raw materials and intermediate raw materials, which continued to weaken by -10.3% and -7.4%, respectively. Meanwhile, imports of fuel products improved considerably by 84.4% (contracted by -13.2% in the prior month). Such a growth was supported by soaring crude oil imports, with growth at 132.0% (contracted by -16.6% in the prior month). Furthermore, imports of motor cars, motor vehicles, parts and accessories returned to growth at 28.4%, a drastic improvement from the contraction witnessed throughout 2022. Nevertheless, Thai imports grew following the Thai economic recovery pace, while exports continued to stall following the global economic slowdown. As such, the customs basis trade balance registered at a deficit of USD -4,649.6 million in January. Such a posted result marked 10 consecutive months of deficit.
Thai merchandise exports could continue to worsen. However, support from…
