Thai PM’s Suspension Has Little Impact On Policymaking For Now

Key View

• Thailand’s Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha was suspended from official duty on August 24 2022 and this suspension will last until the constitution court delivers a final ruling on his legally mandated eight-year term limit.
• At Fitch Solutions, we see little impact on policymaking and continuity in Thailand over the immediate term, and have retained the country’s Short-Term Political Risk Index Score at 60.0, out of 100.
• Nevertheless, we continue to see elevated protest risks in Thailand ahead of the national elections due by May 2023, which if sustained, would pose downside risks to the recovery in tourism and our 2022 growth forecast of 2.9%

Thailand’s Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha was suspended from official duty by the constitutional court on August 24. This came after the court decided to hear an opposition petition to look into the Prime Minister’s legally mandated eight-year term limit. The decision to hear the case brought about by the opposition was unanimous and the court voted 5:4 to suspend Prayut from prime ministerial duties from August 24 until the court delivers a verdict. The latest political development is in line with our view that Thailand would continue to see heightened political risks despite Prayut surviving his fourth non-confidence vote that took place on July 23. As a result, we maintain our short-term political risk index score of 60.0, out of 100 (see chart below).