Asia Autos: Slow Down In China To Drag Regional Sales Growth Lower In 2022

We believe that Asia’s vehicle sales will enter 2022 in a weaker position as the new Covid-19 variant and the associated restrictions suppress the ability of consumers to buy vehicles. Furthermore, we note that the global semiconductor shortage will continue to restrict the region’s vehicle sales growth potential. Additionally, we note that strong demand for electric vehicles (EVs) in markets such as China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand will aid the continued growth of the region’s vehicle sales over 2022. We forecast that Asia’s vehicle sales will rebound by 12.8% in 2021 to reach an annual sales volume of just over 44mn units, up from a 2019 vehicle sales volume of 41.5mn units. In 2022, we expect the Asia region’s vehicle sales will continue to recover, however, the overall performance of the region’s vehicle sales markets will depend on how effectively the chip shortage is managed. We forecast that total vehicle sales in Asia will expand by 5.0% with strong upside risk. Breaking down our 2021 forecast, we expect passenger vehicle (PV) sales will lead the rebound with growth of 13.5%, while commercial vehicle (CV) sales will expand by 10.1%.

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