ALP’s Parliamentary Majority To Benefit Policy-Making And Continuity

Key View

• Following the ALP’s securing a parliamentary majority in the 2022 Australian Federal Election, we have raised the country’s Short-Term Political Risk Index to 78.3 out of 100 from 71.5 previously.
• We expect a parliamentary majority will provide the ALP with greater latitude in crafting and enacting policies, while the broadly similar stance taken by the ALP relative to the Coalition means that risk to policy continuity is relatively modest.
• Under the ALP-led government, we expect a greater focus on environmental policies and more generous social welfare benefits on the domestic front, while we expect tensions with Mainland China to persist on the foreign front.

After the Australia Labour Party (ALP) successfully secured a parliamentary majority in the House of Representative on May 30, we at Fitch Solutions have revised up our Short-Term Political Risk Index (STPRI) score to 78.3 out of 100, from 71.5 previously. A parliamentary majority means that ALP does not need to count on the support of smaller parties or independent lawmakers to form the government, thereby giving the party greater latitude in crafting bills and pushing through policies. With the conclusion of the federal election and the transition to the Albanese administration taking place smoothly, we have raised both the ‘policy-making process’ and ‘policy-continuity’ component scores to 73.3 (from 63.3) and 78.3 (from 71.5) respectively.