Abstract
Thai exports continued to decline for the ninth straight month in June 2023. The value of exports stood at $24,826.0 million, dropping by 6.4% compared to the previous year. Exports contracted across all key product categories, with agricultural products shrinking by 7.4% and agro-industrial products falling by 10.2%. Exports of manufacturing products also declined by 4.6% and mining and fuel products dropped by 25.5%. Exports to China and Japan rebounded, while exports to the US and EU28 contracted. The trade balance returned to a slight surplus of $57.7 million, mainly due to a sharper decline in imports compared to exports. Going forward, Thai exports may receive support from the low base, but there are still downside risks.
Thai exports in June continued to decline for the ninth consecutive month.
The value of Thai exports in June 2023 stood at USD 24,826.0 million, dropping by -6.4%YOY. Such a contraction worsened from -4.6% in the prior month. Excluding gold and weaponry, products that do not reflect actual international trade conditions, exports fell by only -5.0%. Moreover, in terms of the seasonally adjusted month-on-month growth, exports in June dropped by only -0.7%MOM_sa. As such, during the first 6 months of 2023, the value of exports stood at USD 141,170.3 million, contracting by -5.4%.
Exports contracted across all key product categories.
In the big picture, exports contracted across all key product categories in June, in which (1) Exports of agricultural products shrank by -7.4%YOY, improving from the -27% plunge in the prior month. Notably, exports of rubber faced an 11 consecutive months decline, contracting by -43.0% in June. On the other hand, exports of fresh/ chilled/ frozen fruits improved by 14.2% after tumbling by -54.8% in the prior month following higher production from the Southern provinces. Similarly, exports of fresh/ chilled/ frozen chicken continued to increase for 13 consecutive months, with growth at 10.7% in June. Such growth was prompted by the bird flu outbreak in Brazil, which heightened the demand for chicken substitutes from Thailand. (2) Exports of agro-industrial products continued to fall for 3 consecutive months with a drop of -10.2%YOY in June. This decline worsened compared to -0.6% in the prior month. Exports of animal or vegetable fats and oil saw a sharp contraction of -80.8% compared to -63% in the prior month. However, exports of sugar expanded by 31.4%, slightly stalling from 44.2% in the prior month. (3) Exports of manufacturing products reverted to a -4.6%YOY decline after expanding for the first time in 8 months in the prior month. Exports of computer and parts continued to shrink for 9 consecutive months with a contraction of -25.3% in June. Additionally, exports of aircraft, spacecraft and parts fell by -68.8%. Excluding gold, weaponry, and aircraft, exports of manufacturing products shrank by only -1.4%; and (4) Exports of mining and fuel products also declined significantly by -25.5%YOY compared to -39.9% in the prior month. Crude oil contributed to this decline, contracting by -29.0%.
Exports by key destinations exhibited volatile growth and mixed outcomes; exports to China and Japan rebounded, while exports to the US and EU28 reverted to a contraction.
Exports by key destinations saw volatile and mixed outcomes, in which (1) Exports to China rebounded and saw a 4.5%YOY increase after contracting by -24% in the prior month. The rebound was primarily driven by exports of fresh/ chilled/ frozen/ dried fruits (29.1% of total export value to China). Such exports increased by 17.2% in June after contracting in the previous month. Additionally, exports to Hong Kong saw robust growth at 17.6%, with gemstones and jewelry exports surging by an impressive 133.9% YOY. (2) Exports to Japan expanded by 2.5%YOY after contracting by -1.8% in the prior month. (3) Conversely, exports to the US shrank by -5.0%YOY after improving by 4.2% in the prior month. (4) Exports to EU28 fell by -6.4%YOY, declining from 9% growth in the prior month; and (5) Exports to ASEAN tumbled both from ASEAN5 (-18.0%) and CLMV (-23.0%) markets.
Thai trade balance returned to a surplus for the first time in 3 months, mainly due to a sharper contraction in imports compared to exports.
The value of imports in June stood at USD 24,768.4 million, declining by -10.3% and worsening from the -3.2% contraction in the prior month. Excluding gold, a product that does not reflect actual international trade conditions, imports weakened to -11.4%, compared to -1.7% in the prior month. The decline in imports was primarily driven by imports of raw materials and intermediate products (-14.5%YOY, CTG -6.1%) and refined fuel (-19.0%YOY, CTG -4.2%). On the other hand, imports of vehicles and transportation equipment continued to improve for 5 consecutive months, with 10.2% growth in June. As imports experienced a sharper contraction than exports, the customs basis trade balance returned to a slight surplus for the first time in 3 months at USD 57.7 million in June, improving from the deficit of USD -1,849.32 million in the prior month. With such regards, the trade balance during 1H2023 stood at a deficit of USD -6,307.6 million.
Looking ahead, Thai exports may receive support from the low base towards the year-end. However, several downside risks remain,…
