Key View
- Real GDP increased by 7.6% y-o-y in Q4 2024, accelerating from 7.4% in Q3, driven by stronger electronics exports and investment. GDP grew by 7.1% in 2024, compared with 5.0% in 2023.
- We now expect GDP to expand by 7.4% in 2025, up from 7.2% previously, due to favourable monetary and fiscal policies and a relatively robust US economy.
- The risks are mixed. On the upside, policymakers could increase capital spending to hit their ambitious 8% growth target. On the downside, the US could increase tariffs on Vietnamese goods.
Real GDP increased by 7.6% y-o-y in Q4 2024, accelerating from 7.1% in Q3, driven by stronger electronics exports and investment (BMI Forecast: 7.5%, market forecasts 6.7%). Thanks largely to robust US electronics demand, exports increased by 11.4% y-o-y in Q4. Also, investment increased by 8.0% y-o-y in Q4 up from 7.1% in Q3, following the government’s push to speed up public capital spending in Q4.Throughout 2024, GDP increased by 7.1%, significantly up from 5.0% in 2023 and well above the official target of 6.5%.
Vietnam continues to exhibit strong economic growth, driven by a combination of strategic policies, robust domestic demand, and expanding export markets. The nation’s commitment to trade openness and integration into global supply chains has solidified its position as a key hub in Southeast Asia. The government’s proactive approach in enhancing infrastructure and business climate further fuels investor confidence, ensuring a steady inflow of foreign direct investment.
Key sectors such as manufacturing, technology, and agriculture are pivotal in sustaining Vietnam’s growth momentum. The manufacturing sector, in particular, has benefited from the diversification strategies of global corporations seeking alternatives to traditional manufacturing giants. Meanwhile, advancements in technology and innovation have spurred growth in the tech sector, attracting tech giants and startups alike. Agriculture continues to flourish, supported by modern techniques and increasing demand for Vietnamese produce globally.
Looking ahead, Vietnam’s economic prospects remain positive despite global uncertainties. The government’s focus on digital transformation and sustainability is expected to drive future growth, creating new opportunities across various sectors. With a young, dynamic workforce and a strong commitment to reform, Vietnam is well-positioned to maintain its trajectory of robust economic development, making it one of the most promising emerging markets in the region.
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