Abstract
Thai exports improved in November 2023, with a 4.9% year-on-year increase, mainly driven by gold exports. However, the growth is attributed to the low base effect and does not reflect a true recovery. Exports of key products and to key destinations improved despite an ongoing trade deficit, with imports outpacing exports. The SCB EIC expects continued export improvement in 2024, led by food, beverages, electronics, and electrical appliances. However, the global supply chain faces risks from recent events that could impact international trade.
Summary
Thai Exports Show Continued Improvement
The value of Thai exports in November 2023 increased by 4.9%YOY, reaching USD 24,379.7 million, marking growth for the fourth consecutive month. However, this growth is primarily due to the low base effect from November 2022 when exports contracted. Excluding this factor, Thai exports actually declined by -2.7% compared to the prior month after seasonal adjustment. Gold exports contributed to the upward trajectory, but sluggish export conditions persist in line with the reading of the global Purchasing Manager Index for overall manufacturing, output, and export orders. For the first 11 months of 2023, Thai exports totaled USD 261,770.3 million, resulting in a decline of -1.5%YOY.
Improvement in Exports by Key Products
Exports of mining and fuel products, agricultural products, manufacturing products, and agro-industrial products all improved in November. However, some specific products such as certain automotive, electronic, and agriculture products have underperformed causing declines in those categories.
Thai Trade Deficit Continues as Imports Outpace Exports
In November, imports stood at USD 25,879.1 million, growing by 10%YOY. The resulting customs basis trade balance recorded a deficit of USD -2,399.4 million, falling further from the prior month. The overall trade balance during the first 11 months of 2023 stood at a deficit of USD -6,165.3 million.
Source : Thai exports grew in November, albeit at a slower pace than imports.
